FMV Accuracy

Every FMV on SORION is an estimate, and we measure it against reality: whenever a card sells, we compare the price to the FMV we had published before that sale (estimates older than 48 hours are excluded). The table shows the median gap over a rolling 3-day window — half of all sales land closer than this, half further away. The short window is deliberate: it always measures our current model, not last month's.

// Why not just the floor, or a simple average?

• The floor price is the cheapest current listing — an asking price, not a traded one. A single mispriced listing moves it, and most actual sales happen well above it.
• A plain average of recent sales treats a three-week-old sale like one from this morning, and lets a single collector's-serial sale drag the whole number.
• FMV is our own model on top of live market data, built to weigh what the market is doing right now over what it did weeks ago. The exact recipe stays our kitchen secret — this page exists so you can judge the results instead.

// Why sales deviate from any estimate

• Special serials — jersey-number and low-serial cards trade far above the regular market and pull single sales way off any average.
• Thin markets — for cards with few sales, each trade is a negotiation, not a market price.
• Fast markets — around season start or gameweeks, prices move quicker than any rolling estimate can follow.
• Auctions vs. instant buys — the same card sells through different mechanisms at different prices.